Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El‑Rufai says President Bola Tinubu stands no chance in the 2027 election, and would be “lucky to come third.”
Speaking on Arise News on Monday, El‑Rufai blamed a weak economy, rampant insecurity, and a lack of infrastructure for widespread public frustration with Tinubu’s government.
He said that “new polls show that many Nigerians have lost faith in the president,” adding that “Tinubu has no pathway to win the 2027 election and would be lucky to come third.”
According to El‑Rufai, approval ratings in some regions are staggering:
“In many parts of the country, particularly in the southeast and the North President Tinubu has a 91% disapproval rating.”
“Even in Lagos, he has a 78% disapproval rating.”
He continued: “In some states in the southwest, he’s doing better than a 78% disapproval rating, but there is no way he’s doing better than 50%, even in the southwest; the guy is gone.”
Highlighting the administration’s failings, El‑Rufai said “He has performed miserably. The economy has tanked. The security architecture has failed. There are no clear trade, industrial and investment policies. Everything is going wrong.”
He accused the government of collecting revenue without visible results.
“They are raising lots of revenues, but we don’t know where the revenues are going because there are no results.”
Reflecting on his shift in perspective, El‑Rufai noted that he once backed both Buhari and Tinubu and had expected Tinubu to do better.
“If you asked me in 2022 or 2023… that things will ever be this bad, I would… say that you are mentally ill.”
He cited alarming statistics:
“Over 2.2 million Nigerians were abducted. 615,000 were killed… worse than the eight years of Buhari in one year.”
“This is data from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics. … So where has that 1.5 trillion gone? … Why is the security situation just getting worse? Why is the government asking communities to protect themselves?”
El‑Rufai also criticised what he called unconstitutional deductions:
“For that 100 billion that goes out every month from the Federation account… without appropriation by the National Assembly … So the entire deduction and spending expenditure is unconstitutional. It’s an impeachable offence…”
Although he’s still undecided about running for president in 2027, El‑Rufai stressed that “priority number one… is to get a person that will improve the quality of governance in Nigeria.”
“He wants a leader who can “defeat President Tinubu because President Tinubu is determined to make this election look as if it is settled.”
Regarding defections to the ruling party, he said:
“I have looked at the numbers. I’ve looked at the trends of elections. President Tinubu has no pathway to win. He cannot win. In fact, he will be lucky if he was third.”
On the matter of his own future, El‑Rufai stated:
“I have not made any decision about what position to run for. I’m thinking about it. … I don’t need to be in politics. I don’t need to be in public service to thrive. … For me, that person [leader] also should be able to defeat President Tinubu.”
