As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 presidential elections, the political landscape is already heating up.
Politicians are actively engaged in alliances, defections, and strategic moves in response to crises rocking major political parties, including the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP).
The PDP, widely regarded as the leading opposition party after securing second place in the 2023 presidential election, has been battling internal strife.
The crisis began when the G-5 governors, led by then-Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, demanded that the party’s presidential ticket be zoned to the South.
When Atiku Abubakar, a northerner, secured the party’s ticket, the group insisted that the party’s then-national chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, step down in favor of a Southerner.
However, Atiku’s camp opposed this, arguing that Ayu should remain in office until after the election.
This division contributed to PDP’s electoral defeat, with Wike’s faction openly opposing the party’s presidential bid.
Since then, the struggle for control within the PDP has intensified, particularly as Wike, now a minister in the APC-led federal government, continues to wield influence within the party.
Many believe Wike’s actions are part of a broader strategy by the APC to weaken the PDP ahead of 2027.
“Wike is being used by the APC-led Federal Government to destroy the PDP, no doubt about that. Look at what is happening in Rivers State; the governor has been reduced to nothing, all thanks to Wike backed up by the Federal Government.”
“How can the Supreme Court rule that the 27 lawmakers loyal to Wike, who announced their defection from the PDP to the APC in the open, never defected? How can anyone describe that?”
“It tells you that a power greater than Fubara is at work and the intention of that power is to continue causing crisis in the party until the 2027 election has come,” a concerned PDP chieftain lamented.
Beyond Rivers State, PDP is facing a leadership tussle over the national secretary position, with Senator Sam Anyanwu and Sunday Ude Okoye both laying claim to the role.
Similarly, the party is grappling with internal strife in Bayelsa State, compounding its challenges ahead of the next election cycle.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party (LP) is also struggling with leadership disputes.
Following the party’s National Executive Council (NEC) meeting on September 4, 2024, a Caretaker Committee led by former minister, Nenadi Usman was formed.
However, Julius Abure, the party’s national chairman, challenged the move in court. The legal battle ended with a ruling in Abure’s favor, rendering Usman’s committee illegal and deepening divisions within the party.
The instability has already led to defections among LP lawmakers at both national and state levels.
Similarly, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), which placed fourth in the 2023 presidential election, is embroiled in a three-way power struggle.
Party founder, Boniface Aniebonam has accused 2023 presidential candidate Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of hijacking the party, while Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf also leads a separate faction.
The crisis has fractured the party, leading analysts to believe that internal disputes will undermine its chances in 2027.
Observers speculate that these opposition party crises are being fueled by the ruling APC to weaken any formidable challenge in 2027.
However, the APC itself is not immune to internal discord.
There is growing discontent among APC leaders in the North, particularly those who played key roles in President Bola Tinubu’s 2023 victory but feel sidelined.
Former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai is among those publicly expressing dissatisfaction with the current administration.
Additionally, many in the North feel that President Tinubu’s government has not adequately distributed political appointments and infrastructure projects to their region.
Analysts suggest that the North may not rally behind Tinubu in 2027 as it did in 2023.
If this holds, the APC could face significant challenges in securing reelection.
Added to this discontent is a brewing crisis in Lagos, President Tinubu’s home state.
The leadership struggle in the Lagos State House of Assembly has divided the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), the state’s top decision-making body.
The impeachment of Speaker Mudashiru Obasa on January 13, 2025, and the brief tenure of his replacement, Mojisola Meranda, before his reinstatement, has left lingering tensions among lawmakers.
As a result, 36 out of 40 Assembly members who initially voted for Obasa’s impeachment are still demanding his voluntary resignation.
Many believe that if unresolved, Lagos could become the epicenter of an APC implosion.
Amidst the turmoil in the major parties, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is emerging as a potential alternative.
The party has remained relatively stable, avoiding the internal crises that have plagued its counterparts.
Its leadership, under Shehu Musa Gabam and 2023 presidential candidate Prince Adewole Adebayo, has been strengthening its national presence.
Only recently, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai was reportedly seen in a closed-door meeting with Gabam, fueling speculation about possible political realignments.
Some PDP members have also been engaging with the SDP leadership in recent times.
The trio of Olu Agunloye (Secretary), Shehu Musa Gabam (Chairman), and Wole Adebayo (2023 presidential candidate) have worked to maintain party cohesion, an achievement that has impressed political observers.
For the past two years, the SDP has been steadily expanding its influence across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.
The party’s unity and commitment to its core values—justice, competence, and integrity—have set it apart from other parties.
The SDP has also performed well in recent elections.
In the Ekiti State governorship election, its candidate, Chief Segun Oni, placed second behind eventual winner, Biodun Oyebanji.
In Kogi State, Murtala Ajaka of the SDP finished ahead of the PDP candidate, securing second place.
The party currently holds four seats in the National Assembly—one in the Senate and three in the House of Representatives.
Public affairs analyst and lawyer C.I. Nnamani believes the SDP’s stability could translate into electoral success in 2027.
“It has no baggage among its members, unlike other parties. Its prospects for 2027 are very bright,” Nnamani said.
He attributes the party’s cohesion to the leadership of its 2023 presidential candidate, Prince Adewole Adebayo.
“This is where the political dexterity and sagacity of Adebayo is clearly displayed. If you watch him, you will notice that he has been networking, meeting people of various religions, ethnicity and party affiliation, forming alliances, and preaching the message of good governance which only a person with character, competence and capacity can deliver.
“At the moment, he is arguably the only politician who has no baggage. I stand to be corrected. If there is any, it would be nice to look through. He is clean by all parameters. He is young, which is needed but lacking in our leadership structure. He is cerebral. He is knowledgeable. He knows something about everything. I am not surprised that former House of Representatives member Usman Bugaje endorses his candidacy. If the party features him again as its flag-bearer in 2027, there is every possibility that Nigerians may queue behind; that’s my personal belief,” he stated.
With the major parties embroiled in internal conflicts, the SDP appears to be positioning itself as a viable alternative.
As the 2027 elections approach, the party’s growing stability and appeal could make it a significant force.
