The United Kingdom is preparing to implement new visa restrictions targeting nationals from Nigeria, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, following internal evaluations that indicate a higher likelihood of overstays and subsequent asylum claims among applicants from these countries.
According to a report published by The Times, the U.K. Home Office, in collaboration with the National Crime Agency (NCA), is designing advanced data-driven models.
These models aim to assist caseworkers in identifying visa applicants, especially those seeking work or study permits, who may be using legal migration routes as a pretext to lodge asylum claims in the future.
The proposed policy shift is expected to significantly impact two key visa categories: the Skilled Worker visa (Tier 4), which permits entry for those with job offers from U.K.-based employers, and the Student visa (Tier 2), which caters to international students.
The move comes amid increasing pressure from political stakeholders and the British public on the Home Office to curtail rising asylum applications, particularly from individuals who initially entered the country through legal means.
Government statistics released in March show that nearly 10,000 people who applied for asylum in 2023 had originally arrived in the U.K on student or work visas.
A considerable number of them were subsequently accommodated in government-funded housing, including hotels.
Notably, nationals from Pakistan, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka formed the bulk of these cases.
Despite the government’s rationale, the new profiling initiative has sparked backlash from immigration analysts and human rights advocates.
They are raising concerns over the potential for bias and ethical violations in targeting applicants based primarily on nationality and predictive data models.
Critics argue that the strategy could be discriminatory, warning that it risks undermining the credibility of the U.K.’s immigration system and its commitment to fair treatment.
