The ongoing political crisis in the Lagos State House of Assembly, which began with the impeachment of Speaker Mudashiru Obasa on January 13, 2025, has escalated into a major power struggle within President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s home base.
With the 2027 presidential election on the horizon, political analysts suggest that this turmoil could have far-reaching implications for Tinubu’s re-election bid.
Although the president has not officially declared his intention to seek a second term, the political landscape is already shifting, with alliances being formed and rivalries reignited.
Tinubu, who lost Lagos State in the 2023 presidential election, may face an even tougher challenge in 2027 if divisions within his stronghold continue to deepen.
Obasa’s impeachment by 36 lawmakers, while he was reportedly on vacation in the United States, sent shockwaves through Lagos’ political circles.
The legislators accused him of gross misconduct, highhandedness, intimidation of colleagues, financial misappropriation, and abuse of office, allegations he has denied.
Upon his return to Nigeria on January 24, Obasa dismissed his removal as illegitimate, claiming it did not follow due process.
President Tinubu, reportedly displeased with the development, was said to have directed efforts to reinstate him.
However, the move has met resistance from lawmakers loyal to his successor, Mojisola Meranda, who insist that Obasa’s tenure is over.
Beyond the internal Assembly dispute, the crisis signals cracks in the political machinery that Tinubu has built over two decades.
Some political observers argue that if he cannot maintain unity in Lagos, it could weaken his influence across the Southwest and beyond.
Additionally, there are signs of discontent in the North, where Tinubu secured significant votes in 2023.
Critics, including former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai and political figure Dr. Usman Bugaje, have voiced dissatisfaction with his administration’s performance, warning that he could face a fate similar to that of former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.
With internal struggles brewing within the ruling APC, particularly in Lagos, Tinubu may have to work harder to consolidate his support base.
His son, Seyi Tinubu, is rumored to be eyeing the Lagos governorship in 2027, adding another layer of political tension in the state.
In a bid to resolve the crisis, Tinubu reportedly deployed the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), the apex decision-making body of the Lagos APC.
However, for the first time, the council appears deeply divided, with some members supporting Obasa’s reinstatement while others back Meranda.
The failure of the GAC to reach a resolution prompted the involvement of senior APC figures, including former APC National Chairman Bisi Akande and former Ogun State Governor Segun Osoba.
Sources suggest a compromise was being considered—allowing Obasa to return temporarily before stepping down—but lawmakers backing Meranda have refused to budge.
Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has largely remained silent on the crisis, but some insiders claim he played a key role in Obasa’s impeachment.
Allegedly, tensions had been brewing between the governor and the former speaker, with Obasa seen as a political threat.
Reports suggest that Sanwo-Olu may have influenced lawmakers to remove Obasa, further straining relations between him and President Tinubu.
The emergence of Mojisola Meranda as Speaker has also reignited an indigene-versus-settler debate in Lagos politics.
As a princess from the Oniru royal family, Meranda enjoys significant support from indigenous Lagosians, many of whom view her leadership as a long-overdue recognition of native Lagosians in governance.
Additionally, her rise has been celebrated as a victory for women in politics, with some supporters arguing that she should not be forced to step down.
This sentiment has strengthened her position, making it even harder for Obasa to reclaim the speakership.
The crisis has now moved to the courts, with Obasa challenging his impeachment.
A Lagos High Court has ordered that all Assembly members be joined as parties in the case, setting the stage for a legal showdown on March 7.
Meanwhile, the House remains divided, with Meranda’s allies rejecting Obasa’s attempted return, calling it an affront to legislative authority.
The outcome of this power struggle could have significant implications for the future of Lagos politics and Tinubu’s hold on his political empire.
As the crisis drags on, it raises critical questions about Tinubu’s ability to maintain control over Lagos politics.
If the dispute is not resolved swiftly, it could weaken the cohesion of his support base ahead of 2027, making his re-election bid more challenging.
Observers argue that Tinubu must urgently engage in political reconciliation to prevent further fragmentation within the APC.
Otherwise, the Lagos Assembly crisis could be a warning sign of bigger political troubles to come.
