Petrol prices surged across Lagos over the weekend following a rise in the ex-depot cost of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), widely known as petrol.
The increase mirrors climbing international crude oil prices, attributed to rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, further inflamed by U.S intervention under former President Donald Trump.
Late Friday, Dangote Refinery raised its ex-depot petrol price from N825 to N880 per litre, a N55 increase.
This triggered immediate adjustments by members of the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), Independent Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), NNPC Retail outlets, and the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN).
Before this adjustment, NNPC outlets were selling at N870, but have now moved to N910 per litre in Lagos.
Other retailers, including Dangote’s partners like MRS, Ardova, and Heyden, also increased their prices accordingly.
Despite Dangote’s new rate, data from petroleumprice.ng, an oil tracking platform, shows varying prices: Aiteo at N893, Ever and Rainoil at N920, Bovas at N910, and WOSBAB at N920 per litre.
According to Oilprice.com, the pricing surge aligns with market fears over the Iran-Israel conflict. Brent crude has been highly volatile, swinging between $70.56 and $79.04 per barrel within a week.
“Analysts suggest that the commodity may get more bullish this week as the outcome of the Israel-Iran row will dictate further price movements,” the report added.
In a move to boost exports, Iran is offering discounts to Chinese buyers.
Sellers of Iranian crude have lowered prices to $3.50 below Brent for July-delivery cargoes, targeting Shandong’s “teapot” refineries that are struggling with high prices.
Tension escalated dramatically after the U.S. launched direct military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
“In the early hours of yesterday, President Trump announced that the U.S. has hit Iran’s nuclear targets, thereby dramatically escalating the conflict in West Asia.”
Since Israel’s initial attack, Brent has climbed 11 per cent, and Bloomberg warns that the U.S. strike could spark more instability.
“Energy markets are now in a wait-and-watch approach over Iran’s response, which may include targeting U.S. interests or critical oil infrastructure in the Gulf.”
One particular concern is Iran’s long-standing threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply passes.
“The Trump administration’s decision to join the conflict follows days of ambiguity. Last Thursday, the former president said he would take two weeks to decide on military action.”
“That changed abruptly early Sunday, when he confirmed the strikes, calling them a ‘payload of BOMBS’ that had ‘totally obliterated’ the targets. Trump warned Tehran of further action if it did not agree to peace with Israel.”
Markets reacted sharply. Freight costs for oil shipments from the Middle East to Asia have spiked by nearly 90%, and traders are paying unprecedented premiums for options to guard against further surges in prices.
The tension has also caused a major pullback in futures markets. Since June 12—just before Israel’s strike—open interest has fallen by 367 million barrels, a 7% drop.
So far, no direct disruption has hit oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. But industry experts caution that could change rapidly.
“The waterway is critical not only for Iranian exports, but also for oil shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait.”
Despite defiance, Iran is also showing signs of tactical adjustment. On Friday, it hinted at revising its uranium enrichment programme, which momentarily softened crude prices.
Meanwhile, Iranian oil exports appear to be accelerating to get ahead of any new sanctions or blockades.
Analysts from Fortune India argue that global energy markets may be on the brink of a defining shift.
“As the week begins, the world’s largest energy market is bracing for what could be a defining moment, not just for oil prices, but for global geopolitical stability.”
